Markets tend to anticipate changes in the economy, and after 2019’s solid financial market returns, we see signs of economic stabilization in the year ahead. Policy uncertainty remains high and geopolitical risk is an ongoing concern, but the global manufacturing recession is likely ending. In this 1H 2020 outlook, our focus turns to Asia—arguably the most important driver of global trade—where our Hong Kong-based Macro Strategist, Sue Trinh, discusses scenarios for the region’s economic path forward.
Despite an outlook of gradually improving economic growth, monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative and interest rates low to negative. Our Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income, John Addeo, explains why, discusses the challenges presented by today’s negative yields, and how active managers can still find ways to generate attractive levels of income. We also offer insight on how our teams are pursuing alpha from two very different corners of the equity markets. Portfolio Managers Alan Wicks and Jonathan Popper describe where they’re finding value in Canada’s late-cycle economy, while U.S. Private Equity Manager Daniel Budde lays out five ways he sees private equity playing a positive role in the year ahead.
Finally, we profile two trends of growing importance to institutional investors. Murray Collis and Keisuke Tsumoto of our Asian and Japanese fixed-income teams explore the rapid growth of sustainability in Asian fixed-income investing. Our Global Head of OCIO and Fiduciary Solutions, Eric Menzer, offers six outsourcing considerations for pension plan sponsors.
We hope you enjoy this edition of Global Intelligence, and we welcome your feedback.
The asset allocator’s view
Our asset allocation team’s 6–12 month views on various asset classes
Source: Asset allocation’s macro strategy team, Manulife Investment Management, December 31, 2019. Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, management discipline, or other expectations are only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events will occur, and if they were to occur, the result may be significantly different than that shown here. Individual portfolio management teams may have different views and opinions that are subject to change without notice.